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Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future start Coming in slightly more than one month :D.--Isaac829 19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC) Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC) : Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC) ::: I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::: That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! AndrewTalk To Me 00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC) Betting pools Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC) October 12L.KAREN AOI.SW Caribbean This one looks like it'll become Karen after the above system becomes Jerry. 10% for two days and 30% for five. I don't expect this to become a huge storm, but it could become a TS, or maybe C1, as it moves northwest towards the GoM. Ryan1000 19:14, September 28, 2013 (UTC) Imma think C2/3ish here, Brady. First major, woo! IT'S PEANUT BUTTER JERRY TIME! (and I liek trainz) 19:18, September 28, 2013 (UTC) : This might become a hurricane, but I'm not placing my money on a Category 2 or a major just yet. I will be watching out for Karen during the next few days. But who knows, Dylan (HM99)'s mom's name could ''become something significant... [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] [[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|''T]] | 00:01, September 29, 2013 (UTC) : well lorenzo will definately crank it up. karen? I'm pretty confident about her ;) IT'S PEANUT BUTTER JERRY TIME! (and I liek trainz) 00:50, September 29, 2013 (UTC) : This possible Karen will be a ts and maybe a cat 1 but conditions are not favorable for something strong as it will run into Cuba and then into Florida and it needs to fight against dry air.Allanjeffs 01:19, September 29, 2013 (UTC) 97L.INVEST upgrade to 97l should become a td in the week and Karen later on.cat 1 at most if not a ts.Allanjeffs 07:35, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::: Yeah, like I said, this won't be anywhere close to being a cat 2 or 3, cat 1 would be the best I'd expect from this. Only marginally favorable conditions for development and proximity to land should keep this storm from exploding, but I'd be quite surprised if this doesn't become Karen. Ryan1000 06:26, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::Fixed the header again Allan, sorry if this format isn't letting you get the header right. For future reference guys, if the headers are sticking out on you like that, you can switch the page format from visual mode to source mode (above where it says more+) and put the header back to the front of the page. Ryan1000 20:21, September 29, 2013 (UTC) :::::Invest 97L has a 20% chance of formation in the next two days and a 40% chance in the next five days. Gusty rainfall is expected for the Greater Antilles in the coming few days. By the way, no one has mentioned this yet, but 'K' names have been very cursed recently. The last 'K' storm that did not reach hurricane intensity was Tropical Storm Katrina in 1999. Since then, every Atlantic 'K' storm has reached hurricane intensity; in this streak you will find a trio of major hurricanes (Kate, Karl '04, Katrina) and two other destructive Latin American hurricanes (Keith and Karl '10). I am rooting for a Category 1 hurricane so the 'K' curse continues... AndrewTalk To Me 22:43, September 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Considering this is 2013, the curse probably will be broken. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:51, September 29, 2013 (UTC) :::::No problem Ryan,hmm this will maybe be a td or ts conditions are not even that favorable anymore for a hurricane this year have bring fail after fail.Allanjeffs 22:52, September 29, 2013 (UTC) :::::Down to 10% might not develop at all.Allanjeffs 00:12, September 30, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Or MAYBE it might!?! Who knows? Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 19:07, September 30, 2013 (UTC) This will now be an October storm if it does develop. Not that I expect it to anyways. Oh, and a round up from September, this year's ACE is currently 72% below average for this time of year. In fact, since 1950, only 4 seasons (1962, 1977, 1983, and 1994, 1983 and 1994 of which were El Nino years), had a lower ACE than this season so far. We've had a near-normal number of named storms so far (Jerry's our 10th), but only 2 hurricanes and still no majors. Typically we see 8 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major by this time of year. Goes to show this year has really been dead up until now. But then again, October is no month to be taken lightly, as last year and 1998 showed. We could still see a historic storm in October, but like I said before, unless we get a miraculous explosion of activity in this month, we're not going to beat record-dead ACE numbers. Ryan1000 01:01, October 1, 2013 (UTC) : Wow, the ACE this year sucks!!! I don't think we will see a historic storm in October, considering that this is 2013. Back to the AOI, I think it might only be a tropical storm, but I'm really hoping for a hurricane out of this. We've had enough weak storms this season. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:33, October 1, 2013 (UTC) ::: Well, if it becomes a hurricane, hopefully not too strong. Now at 30% while Jerry still churns over water. Actually, it was revised to say 70% below average ACE, but still. Ryan1000 23:46, October 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Now at 70%, Air force is on it's way to see if we have Karen (or TD 12). Ryan1000 17:54, October 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Might not be upgrade right now but up to 40mph in Atcf when upgrade it will go straight into Karen.Might be our third hurricane of the season.Allanjeffs 22:03, October 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::::My failure-worn, 2013 self assures you that this won't get stronger than Jerry was at its peak. Looks like my mom will have to wait six more years, when the entire Atlantic hopefully isn't cursed. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:14, October 2, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Yeah, your mom's name might have to wait six more years, but who knows, the 2019 "Karen" could even be a fail. But anyway, I certainly think we will see Karen from this, although it will be yet another TS. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:54, October 2, 2013 (UTC) Invest 97L is currently at an 80% chance of formation in the next two and five days. Sadly, another fail is in the making... AndrewTalk To Me 11:26, October 3, 2013 (UTC) AL, 97, 2013100306, , BEST, 0, 215N, 866W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Up to 45mph and not even a ts.Might not become strong but at least is something to track.Allanjeffs 11:34, October 3, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Karen Confirmed by the TWO and is expect to be upgrade with 60mph and be a hurricane.Allanjeffs 12:06, October 3, 2013 (UTC) This looks to be poise to become our third hurricane before upper level winds make her weaken.The season still hasn`t end and some surprises may still come.Allanjeffs 12:11, October 3, 2013 (UTC) Just got stronger. Now 65 mph and 1004 mb. Also expected to hit Southeastern United States in the next couple of days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:21, October 3, 2013 (UTC) :Wow, I expected to see Karen when I got home from school, but not a 55-knot strong TS! That ties it with Andrea and Chantal for the second-highest peak windspeed of any storm this season, after the 75 knots reached by Humberto and Ingrid. I'm not holding my breath - in fact, I think it would be in 2013 style for Karen to weaken until landfall - but I'm glad that it's as strong as it is now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:41, October 3, 2013 (UTC) :::Well, like I mentioned before, it's not going to surprise me if it becomes a hurricane, but due to increasing shear in the northern gulf by the weekend, I doubt this'll be stronger than (if not nearly identical to) Cindy of '05, just in October. Ryan1000 22:02, October 3, 2013 (UTC) :::OMGWTFBBQ :O This storm is scary. Very scary. I hope she is not like Isaac last year. OMG KAREN :O DAT KAREN IS FREAKISHLY SCARY. Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 22:14, October 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::Wow, I expected Karen after I got home from school, but I didn't expect a 65-mph strong TS!! This will probably become a hurricane before falling victim to strong shear in the Gulf of Mexico. It's also threatening the U.S Gulf Coast. Stay tuned. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:47, October 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::Karen is becoming disorganized she has until tomorrow to become a hurricane if not she is going to die without reaching hurricane strength.Allanjeffs 23:35, October 3, 2013 (UTC) :::::Karen's pressure has fallen to 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg). It is expected to briefly reach 65 knots tomorrow. AndrewTalk To Me 00:56, October 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::And, in true 2013 style, the new advisory eliminates hurricane strength from Karen's forecast. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:46, October 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Lol that make me laugh,but yes the NHC is pretty confident this will not be our third hurricane,and with the majority of the models developing weak Lorenzo near the island.We should wait Melissa and Nestor for a hurricane.Allanjeffs 02:56, October 4, 2013 (UTC) :::::: YES!!!!!! WEAKEN YOU PIECE OF SH*T!!!! I live in Florida ( in the path of this sotrm) and I don't need a hurricane leeb0y100 (talk) 11:35, October 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Down to 50mph AL, 12, 2013100412, , BEST, 0, 253N, 901W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 0, 60, 1012, 125, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,.2013 continues to shine.Allanjeffs 12:19, October 4, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Karen's pressure has risen to 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). The hurricane watch for the Gulf Coast has been cancelled. Man, 11 tropical storms, but only 2 hurricanes? Wow, what a dud season the Atlantic has been so far. AndrewTalk To Me 21:09, October 4, 2013 (UTC) :::::::No! THAT'S GOOD I live on the Gulf Coast I don't need this crappy storm, I have plans >:( LEEBOY SAYS KAREN SUCKS leeb0y100 (talk) 21:16, October 4, 2013 (UTC) Leeboy, I agree that you do not want Karen interfering on your plans, but I am upset because we are witnessing this all over again to a more pathetic extent. AndrewTalk To Me 21:27, October 4, 2013 (UTC) I'm sorry. leeb0y100 (talk) 21:49, October 4, 2013 (UTC) GRRR! Why can't Karen become a hurricane?! I was really expecting our 3rd hurricane from this, but in true 2013 style, strong wind shear struck Karen and it's not going to become a hurricane anymore due to the stupid shear (not like I really wanted it to become a hurricane, or else it's destruction on the U.S Gulf Coast might be worse than it is expected to be). We are now 12-11-2, the Atlantic just can't stop producing failings! [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 23:32, October 4, 2013 (UTC) 12-11-2? You mean 11-2-0 or if you count depression 1-11-2-0.Anyways Karen is affected by shear and dry air that combination can be lethal to tc.Allanjeffs 23:59, October 4, 2013 (UTC) Lol imma wait for a major Lorenzo lol. That name is too cute for a weakling storm. I think karen will ignore the haughty wind shear. Haughty and naughty. If Lorenzo is weak then YOU KNOW WHAT ILL DO Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 00:02, October 5, 2013 (UTC) :It's down to 40 kts. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:11, October 5, 2013 (UTC) :Convection is so far removed by this point that I wonder if Karen will even survive as a tropical cyclone to make its first brush with land in SE LA. It's pretty pathetic at this hour on satellite. With Karen failing, this year's ACE is pretty pitiful. In fact, looking over this year's statistics, unless something big happens in the Atlantic, East/Central Pacific, or the South Pacific basin east of the date line, 2013 will go down as having no major tropical cyclones (100kt+) in the ENTIRE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. Except for possibly 1968, there are no other years since accurate modern record-keeping began that this has happened. According to the data that I can find, this year's East Pacific ACE, with no further storms and no major adjustments, will be the second lowest recorded in modern times, only surpassing 1977, and the Atlantic ACE with no further activity and no adjustments will be the third lowest in modern times. A rather pitiful, pitiful year if you ask me! TheMagnificentEquusStorm (talk) 09:54, October 5, 2013 (UTC) ::And I thought 2010 was pathetic enough (aside from the Atlantic). The SPAC could get a December major and save us at the last minute. Anyway, wih Karen, it has fallen to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg), and at the rate it is collapsing, even though the NHC forecasts it to make landfall in Louisiana as a weak tropical storm, it could easily pull a Bonnie (2010). AndrewTalk To Me 11:20, October 5, 2013 (UTC) :::This is the most meteorologically and personally upsetting storm I have ever tracked. After all the failures and weaklings we've gotten this season, my mom was supposed to be a 65-knot hurricane at this point. But nooooo, instead it's on the verge of weakening to a depression! To hell with this year, just bring on 2014 already so every basin in the world can start anew. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:29, October 5, 2013 (UTC) ::::Karen is now at 35 knots (40 mph) and approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast. Hey Atlantic, when will you ever wake up and produce a hurricane? I also expected a hurricane out of this when it first formed, but the fact that Karen never became a hurricane and weakened a lot before landfall...is...just...stupid. The Atlantic can never get on with it this season. I'm hoping that future Lorenzo or Melissa will become a major, since the Atlantic really needs to produce something strong...for once. The ACE this season is just pathetic, and this inactivity appears to be happening in the entire northern hemisphere. The EPac never produced a major this season, the WPac only has 5 typhoons this season, and the Northern Indian only has 1 tropical storm this season. Reminds me of 1977. This is literally what I'll do if Lorenzo or Melissa don't become hurricanes. Also, this is my reaction to the Atlantic's (and the entire northern hemisphere's) inactivity. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 17:20, October 5, 2013 (UTC) ::::::God, this season worldwide is actually looking prime to rival 1977 as the least active year in history. The hell with 2013, nothing is actually worth the time to watch, I thought this could've been a hurricane, but as every other storm this year showed us, it HAD to be an epic fail, It just HAD to...Screw this, I'm out until we get something that's actually attention-grabbing. Ryan1000 17:49, October 5, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::LOL, Karen is just a pranker. People thought she would be scary. Not sure if annoyed or impressed. CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSED BY THIS EMPTY BAG. If Lorenzo is not a MAJOR hurricane, then this will be my reaction. All of 4chan, Reddit and 9gag will be annoyed.Seriously?? PRODUCE A MAJOR CANE NOW, I WILL LITERALLY PLACE A 28938 DEGREE FARENHEIT HEATER UNDER THE ATLANTIC, A "WIND SHEAR KILLER SUCKER" AND A "DRY AIR HAMMER." 'Lol. It's hammah time. But, hey, anyway, the good thing is that Karen was no Isaac :D!! This will sum up Lorenzo's personality as a storm. Compare that to Karen's personality, sums it all up in this pic. Ya get it? So, anyway, I still am optimistic that this season will catch up in the end. We should get a classic October Caribbean storm, well, according to the models anyway. :o Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 17:59, October 5, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::(edit conflict) Allow me to follow your lead, Ryan. I'll still be watching the WPAC, since they're making a bit of a comeback over there (Danas was just upgraded to a typhoon by the JTWC), but the EPAC is almost dead and Karen was the final straw as far as the Atlantic is concerned. Inevitably, I'll be tricked back into watching the Atlantic or EPAC by yet another failure sooner or later. This curse just ''had to affect the list with my mom's name on it. Liz, I like your characterization of Karen: "pranker." Seems to sum up this entire season. --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 18:03, October 5, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::::Lol, thanks Dills. I'm sure Lorenzo will make a Pinkie Promise! That Pinkie Promise he made was that he will become a hurricane, and he will try to be a major! "Cross my heart and hope to fly, stick a cupcake in my eye." See? I really want him to be a major! That name is so cool! This is what I'll do if Lorenzo is not a hurricane. Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 18:12, October 5, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::: Sorry, Karen's pressure has risen to 1009 mbar (hPa; 29.80 inHg). It has stalled, so it could be a slight rainfall problem. I am upset with Karen failing to attain hurricane intensity (the last time a 'K' storm failed to do so was Katrina '99). Hopefully, Lorenzo can do something like this! Liz, Lorenzo will not break your pinkie promise! AndrewTalk To Me 18:44, October 5, 2013 (UTC) We might get 3 more storms in October and 1 in November,but come on 2012 only has 2 majors and 1 advisory each so I will not call that to be remember,people remember 2012 because of Sandy but apart of that it wasn`t that interesting,with 2014 forecast to be an El Niño it will probably be another boring season.We will probably end with Olga or Pablo before all is done and 2013 close for business.Allanjeffs 19:32, October 5, 2013 (UTC) AL, 12, 2013100518, , BEST, 0, 279N, 918W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M Down to td btw.Allanjeffs 19:36, October 5, 2013 (UTC) : 2012 had lots of notable facts aside from Sandy, we had 2 storms form pre-season (and in May), one of only 2 or 3 occurences in history, the record-earliest 4th storm, a record 8-storm August, Isaac was a somewhat destructive storm for the southeast US (mainly Louisiana), Nadine lasted for over 20 days, and 2012 had 19 named storms. This year hasn't had a single category 3, let alone category 2, hurricane, not a single landfalling hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic (Ingrid was a 65 mph TS when it hit Mexico), an overall ACE of not even 20 and 70% below the average ACE for this time of year. We still have about 3-4 weeks to go until the season shuts down for good, but unless a miracle happens in that time period, this season might as well go forgotten. Ryan1000 20:10, October 5, 2013 (UTC) :: Yeah, 2012 was an eventful year, with many records broken such as earliest 4th storm on record, Nadine's longevity, and Sandy's size and destruction. The Atlantic this year has been BORING! The ACE really sucks, due to the huge number of epic fails. This is the last straw. If Lorenzo can't become a hurricane, then I'll ditch the Atlantic for good for this year. Hopefully 2014 will have better storms than this pathetic season, even though it will be an El Nino. Back to Karen, it is stationary right now near Louisiana, and should make landfall by tomorrow. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:29, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Karen If Andrea, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Gabrielle, and Jerry were upsetting you, Karen will not help your feelings. It has collapsed to 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h)/1009 mbar (hPa; 29.80 inHg), and might not even make it to the Gulf Coast tropical. Bonnie (2010) 2.0 anyone? AndrewTalk To Me 11:14, October 6, 2013 (UTC) : Wow, this storm is failing so badly it might not even make landfall as a tropical cyclone. Seriously Karen? Can you really fail that much? Andrew, more like Don 2.0. Ryan1000 12:55, October 6, 2013 (UTC) ::No, worse than Don. At least Don made landfall as a tropical cyclone, even if it did dissipate almost immediately afterward. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:19, October 6, 2013 (UTC) This storm has now dissipated. Enough of the boring storms. Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 14:33, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Epic Fail.I am speechless,that what I say in wunderground that there was a possibility that this one would dissipate without making landfall.Allanjeffs 14:36, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Karen Our cross-breed between Don, Ida, and Bonnie (2010) has died. AndrewTalk To Me 14:54, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :And I thought Jerry was a fail. That one honestly looks like a pretty sweet deal in comparison to how badly Karen trolled us all. I'm rather unnerved by how accurate my pessimistic side turned out to be with this one. Regarding the now-broken 'K' hurricane curse, I had said earlier on that with the way 2013 was going, Karen would probably be the combo breaker. I then said that it would be in 2013 style for Karen to weaken until landfall... and as it turned out, it didn't even survive to the coast! I wanted my mom's name to go to the biggest and baddest storm of the year, but instead it goes to the biggest failure and disappointment of them all. Go figure! :With the failure of Karen, I have completely lost hope in this season. Lorenzo will fail, Melissa will fail, and Nestor - if we even get there - will fail. Humberto will be the strongest storm of the season at 75 kts/980 mbar, making it possibly the weakest storm to be any season's strongest since reconnaissance began in 1944, and 2013 the first season without a major since 1994. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:46, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :Karen was the biggest troll of the season so far,but I never expect her to reach hurricane status nor to make landfall.She is the biggest dissappointment of all in this season.Epic fail! but we will probably get another 3 to 4 name storms before all is done,and no I believe it was in the 60s were there was a season when the storms strongest storm was a cat 1,unless we get a major at the end of October we will end without a major in an El non Niño year.First time ever since records began keeping.Allanjeffs 17:29, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :Lol, AJ, I've got something to sum up Karen. LOL, when you said "Karen was the biggest troll of the season so far." OMG LOL XD Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 17:46, October 6, 2013 (UTC) ::Allan, Gladys '68 was the strongest storm of that year, and it peaked with the same windspeeds as Humberto did, but it also had a significantly lower pressure of 965 mbar. That's why Humberto is weaker than Gladys. For comparison, the strongest storm of the 1994 AHS, Hurricane Florence, peaked as a high-end C2 with 95 kt winds but a pressure of 972 mbar, 20 kts stronger but also 7 mbar weaker than Gladys. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:55, October 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::Thanks for that awesome fact! However, I still think some storm will smash dat rekkord set by berto. INNIT MAN! Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 18:00, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :::::I don't. This is 2013, after all. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:05, October 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Yes, but I'm STILL thinking that there will be a shock surprise. The models predict a massive and potentially dangerous Melissa in about 2 weeks from now, and could track towards Florida. Trust me Dylan, but I'm sure conditions will improve. 2014 will be MUCH WORSE than now. 2015 might be the real active one. Or what if Karen suddenly pops up on the US east coast again? A Gabby-style surprise? Who knows? Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 18:08, October 6, 2013 (UTC) AOI: Eastern Atlantic AOI: Eastern Atlantic Fresh from the NHC bro. Come at me bro. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. -- Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 18:40, October 5, 2013 (UTC) And yes, the models predict a hurricane from this. Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 18:40, October 5, 2013 (UTC) Come on! Hopefully, we can witness another Danielle (2010), Karl (2004), or Gabrielle (1989)! AndrewTalk To Me 18:59, October 5, 2013 (UTC) Not going to happen a mid to strong ts at most.Dry air is not going to let this strength much more than that.The Atlantic is seriously lacking strong storms this season,and October doesn`t usually let storms in the Eatl strength.The models forecasting a hurricane are the ones that were forecasting Karen to become a cat 2 so I would take them as a grain of salt.Allanjeffs 19:28, October 5, 2013 (UTC) : Only 8 hurricanes have reached hurricane status in the deep tropical Atlantic during the month of October since 1900, a most recent example being Kate of 2003. This shouldn't be one of those exceptions. I doubt this will become more than a weak or moderate TS at most. Ryan1000 20:10, October 5, 2013 (UTC) I disagree with you both. This storm WILL pull a Kate. I REALLY disagree. If this storm is not a hurricane, you can imagine me as Medusa. I love the next name on the list. For me, names matter. Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 20:33, October 5, 2013 (UTC) I think this will become Lorenzo, and I SERIOUSLY want this to become a hurricane! If it doesn't become a hurricane, then I'm done. Lorenzo, you better not be an epic failure, or me, Liz, and many others will go mad. The Atlantic has been too boring with all these failures... [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:37, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :NHC says that conditions are expected to become less conducive by midweek. Just figured I'd try and keep all y'all from getting your hopes up too high like we all did with Karen. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:51, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :If the dry air and wind shear are really bad, then I do not want this to develop at all. It should either become a hurricane or simply die. I will root for Scenario B. AndrewTalk To Me 14:11, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :Tbh I prefer to track fails and epic fails than nothing at all.Just don`t get your hopes when it something form this year.Models and the NHC seems exctiting of this system developing but it will prbably be just a mid grade storm like Jerry.Allanjeffs 14:42, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Lorenzo is an awesome name. Why should it be wasted on a weak storm? I honestly think, though, that this will be a C2+. Yes seriously. kate in 2003 did it, why can't lorenzo? hurricanes in africa can still become hurricanes in october, innit man? i'm sure this will be better than humberto, agreed? Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 17:52, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :Because conditions aren't favorable enough, that's why. Throwing blind faith to a name isn't a very proper way to make predictions. I just learned that the hard way with Karen. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:59, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :But I'm still optimistic! :D Who knows what will happen next? Melissa or Nestor or Olga or their other mates might become majors, who knows?! Mmm hmm? Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 18:03, October 6, 2013 (UTC) ::I'd put our chances of getting a major at 15%. The only reason I'm not completely writing off the possibility is because Florence '94 came damn close in November of that year. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:07, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance We have enough storms in this season to start this section (four), but nothing is worth retiring so far. My predictions: Andrea - 1% - It affected a variety of regions, but it is not going. Barry - 0.5% - If Arlene (2011) was not retired for affecting the same regions as Barry did, it is not going as well. Chantal - 0.1% - One death does not cut it in this case. Dorian - 0% - It regenerated after everyone said it was done, but I doubt it will go. Erin - 0.05% - There was some rain in the Cape Verdes, but if Fran (1984) was not retired for affecting Cape Verde, neither will Erin. Fernand - 0.8% -The flood threats from Fernand, along with eighteen fatalities, make Fernand the season's deadliest storm, but it is extremely doubtful it will go. Gabrielle - 0.1% - Some slight effects occured in Hispaniola, but it otherwise fell flat on its face. However, it did redeem itself. Humberto - 0.01% - Humberto did break our TS streak. However, it is staying, despite minor effects on Cape Verde. Ingrid - 10% - Ingrid does have a better chance than some of you think. It flooded up northeastern Mexico, and it is deadlier than Kenna and Anita, both of which got retired for primarily affecting Mexico. Depending on damage totals, my percentage should go up or down. Jerry - 0% - Was nothing more than an epic fail. Karen - 0.01% - Karen was slightly better than Jerry, but still, no way. AndrewTalk To Me 00:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ---- STO12's Predictions *ANDREA: 20% Caused some impact to Florida and the southeast, but not significant enough for a retirement. *BARRY: 15% Torrential rains in Central America, but not enough impact to sustain a retirement. *CHANTAL: 5% Caused very little impact to the windward islands, no retirement for Chantal. *DORIAN: 5% No impact to land as a tropical storm. It's remnants and regenerated tropical depression status did more. *ERIN: 0% No impact to land. *FERNAND ? Predictions for Fernand will be released once the storm has dissipated. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 02:02, August 26, 2013 (UTC) :But what about its remnants? Wouldn't the remains of Dorian have a possibility to cause at least some impact/damage? Jeffrey1998 (talk) 04:16, July 28, 2013 (UTC) :::I agree, Dorian's remnants have a 10% chance of coming back. He still has a chance to do something. Ryan1000 10:43, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::You honestly think Dorian is going to regenerate? I don't and it's at 0% right now, so I was correct. Dorian was a fail to me, its remnants didn't do anything big. -.- [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 23:11, July 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I said that two days ago, when it had a chance of regenerating. But now, he's dead. Dorian never did jack sh!t. Ryan1000 03:23, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ---- Here's my predictions: *Andrea - 5% - Caused some impact to the southeast, but too little impact for retirement. *Barry - 1% - Affected Mexico, but it will not be retired. *Chantal - 0.1% - Caused very little impact. *Dorian - 0% - Fail, but surprised us by regenerating after everyone thought it was done. *Erin - 0% - See Jerry. *Fernand - 10% - I never expected it to be as bad as this. It killed 18 people. But still, since Mexico rarely retires names, I don't think it is going. *Gabrielle - 1% - Not much impact. *Humberto - 0% - It became the season's first hurricane, but no land impacts, so no retirement here. *Ingrid - 15% - Lots of flooding in Mexico and 19 deaths, but considering Mexico's track record... *Jerry - 0% - EPIC FAILURE!!! Biggest fail of the year award. *Karen - ? - Still active. [[User:Steven09876 |'''Steven09876]] ''T'' | ' 16:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC) RyanK is here: *Andrea - 2% - Not much different from Alberto '06. Caused some flooding, but nothing severe. *Barry - 2% - Just like Bret '05. Some damage, some deaths, but for Mexico, it's not enough. *Chantal - 1% - I was really hoping to see more from Chantal, but it fell flat on it's face in the open Caribbean...Still, tack a 1% on it for the death in the Dominican Republic. *Dorian - 0% - It tried, but failed. *Erin - 0% - What a disgrace. *Fernand - 8% - Worse than Barry, but still not retirement-worthy. *Gabrielle - 0% - What a dissapointing storm...yeah it came back but still, it was weak and caused no damage or deaths. *Humberto - <5% - Still active, but probably won't affect land. *Ingrid - 10% - 19 deaths is a reasonable retirement number, but considering Mexico's track record... *Jerry - 0% - Another fish, another failure... *Karen - ?? - Might do some damage. That's all for now. 'Ryan1000' 16:19, July 28, 2013 (UTC) '''THIS... IS... SPARTA!!!!' *Andrea = 5%. She did cause a bit of hype along the northeast but her impacts were not life-threatening, just too petty. *Barry "INNIT MAN" = 1%. That name did give me the creeps when I first saw it on the list but he is nothing more than a candidate for 2019's hurricane list. *Chantal >:) = 0%. That was absolutely dreadful. *Dorian Gray = -∞%. What the bloody hell was that? ' *Erin = -∞%. FACEHOOF. EPIC FAIL. BOOOOOOOOO!!!!! Cape Verde will not do this, they didn't feel a THING from this shy kid! *Fernand= 5%. I just ate my free Nando's. Mexico, no way. This ain't going ANYWHERE. *Gabby = 2% OMG the second life, shadow of the dead! Canada didn't feel a thing. *Humberto the boss :) = 3% I LIKE TRAINS AND MINE TURTLES, THIS ONE PRODUCED A MASSIVE SHINY DOUGHNUT :O D'OH! (''Iceland won't do it. Neither will Africa. I got the remnants from Humberto but he provided me with warm late summer weather earler this week. It was true, look up on ITV Weather.) *Ingrid = 38% Outshined by Manuel. Manuel was too evil. *Jerry "N00b" Springmouse = -93%. '''n00b. this n00b ain't going anywhere. superglued to the hurricane list for good. n00b *DAT KAREN = -27%. YOU PINKIE PROMISED!!!!!!!!1111 *Lorenzo = 839%. I'll make sure he'll win the crown. I LIKE TRAINS 23:32, September 26, 2013 (UTC) I thought I had done my already anyways. Andrea:3% believe it or not she has been one of the most interesting so far but anyways just left some rains and three deaths. Retirement is out of the question. Barry:2% Knowing Mexico for sure will not recommend this fail for retirement.They don`t even retire big hurricanes like Karl then this one is going to stay,I am pretty sure no ones remember a TS Barry in Mexico. Chantal :1% Another system that sucumbs to the trade winds in the Ecab.Fail Dorian: 1% and the parade of fail continues that 1% is just because he regenerate when the majority didn`t thought he will. Erin:1%Did I really need to comment? It affect the Cape verde but if Fran in 1984 which I believe has been the most damaging and deadliest storm there which caused at least 32 deaths wasn`t retire then this one for sure will not for just rain Fernand: 8% Not a fail but nothing that Mexico haven`t seen before Gabrielle 1% She is finally out, that percent is for slight flooding in the virgin islands and PR Humberto 1% Our first hurricane and some rain to the cape verde islands but nothing more.His second life was a bust. Ingrid: 10% I would love to give her a little more but she was not as bad as predict an Manuel is describe as being worse than her by Mexico news.So she is not going sorry.Manuel really put her at nothing now. Jerry 0% Better than I imagine but still a fish and a ts Karen 0% Biggest troll of the season,she play with a lot of bloggers,what she did was inexcusable. .Allanjeffs 21:56, August 18, 2013 (UTC) We don't have anything that stands a chance of retirement so far, but I'll put mine in anyway: *Andrea: 4% - Caused some hype along the US East Coast, but the impacts weren't all that much. Basically what Liz said. *Barry: 2% - It killed 3 people, but considering the fact that those deaths were in the ever-conservative Mexico, retirement isn't happening. *Chantal: 1% - 1 death in the Dominican Republic, and it was very blustery in Saint Lucia. Blown to pieces before it could do much else. *Dorian: 0% - It impressed us by regenerating after being dead for a week, but it had no impacts on land, so no. *Erin: 0% - A bit of rain in Cape Verde, and zilch after that. *Fernand: 10% - Barry Plus. I did not expect as many as 13 people to die from this thing (the 5 in Honduras were from the precursor wave, so I'm not sure if they count), but if Arlene '11 didn't go, then neither will Fernand. *Gabrielle: 0% 3% - A waste of tropical energy. :*Managed to regenerate and it's more impressive now than it ever was. We'll see what happens, but it shouldn't be too bad in Bermuda. :*Cool to watch in its second life. Minimal impact in Bermuda, but I heard that flooding was apparently severe in the Virgin Islands. No damage or fatality figures as of now, though. *Humberto: 0% - We got our first hurricane out of Humby, but as far as effects on land go, it was nothing more than a re-Erin for Cape Verde. *Ingrid: 15% - Worse than Fernand, but still not bad enough to warrant retirement. Manuel royally outshined Ingrid. *Jerry: 0% - *facepalm* *Karen: 0% - Wanna hear a joke? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:21, August 19, 2013 (UTC) Btw I discover that the Cape verdes are not a member in the group that represents the Atlantic basin that is why maybe Fran was not retire.I imagine that even if a storm affects Africa it will not be retire as they are not members of the same region.Allanjeffs 18:34, August 24, 2013 (UTC) Very interesting, Allan. This would also explain why Beryl '82 and Delta '05 were not retired. They both affected the Cape Verdes/Canaries to a considerable extent, too. (I don't care if Delta was a Greek letter name, it should have been retired!) AndrewTalk To Me 19:11, August 24, 2013 (UTC) : Well, maybe in the future if a hurricane causes enough damage somehwere in Africa or in southern Europe (1842 Spain Hurricane), maybe the WMO could consider those countries for the North Atlantic group in the future. Andrew, as far as I know, the WMO discussed the naming lists in detail after 2005. Had the unnamed Azores subtropical storm been discovered operationally everything would've been pushed back 1 name, Wilma would've been Alpha, and we would've ended at Eta. The WMO said if a greek-named hurricane causes enough damage to warrant retirement, the name will be retired, but instead of being replaced with any particular name, the next time a hurricane season reaches the greek alphabet, the retired greek name will be skipped and the next one will be used instead (I.E. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, if Beta becomes retired). No greek names in 2005 were retired, though Beta could've gotten a lot stronger if it remained offshore Nicaragua longer. I doubt we'll see any hurricane season in the near future that will go as far down the list as 2005 did, but with the way this active cycle has gone, anything is possible. Ryan1000 02:34, August 25, 2013 (UTC) : Gamma shouldn`t have been retire because damaga was not enough and if one of them should had been retire would have been 2005 as it was the deadliest of all the Greek letters.Allanjeffs 05:04, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ::You mean Gamma? And look at this and tell me damage wasn't severe. 19 people died and Delta wrought $364 million in damage. Considering all the destruction was on the Canary Islands, that's pretty bad. I'm not sure if it would've been retired if the Canary Islands were part of the WMO group that represents the Atlantic basin, but still. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:36, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::I'm don't think Spain is part of the WMO's list of countries in the North Atlantic, but if it is, or was, they sure would've retired Delta if they had the chance. The only disasters the Canary Islands see that are worse than rare storms like Delta are eruptions from the volcanoes on the islands (uncommon) or massive earthquakes/tsunamis from the Azores-Gibraltar Transform Fault that caused the great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 (extremely rare). But 19 deaths and 364 million in damage are definitely retirement-worthy numbers, especially for them. Ryan1000 15:23, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::Thanks Dylan yes it was Gamma,and Spain is not part of the region only NAmer Central America and the Caribbean islands too.I believe Colombia may be but not remember I will ask my friend to give me the page again of the members,But the WMO can still ask for retirement if the country doesn`t ask that is the rule.I am not sure why they never ask for Gordon or Hanna though.Allanjeffs 21:18, August 27, 2013 (UTC) ::::Gordon was not retired because Haiti, for some unknown (and possibly unexcusable) reason, did not send a delegate to the WMO retirement conference. I assume Hanna stayed for the same reason. AndrewTalk To Me 21:26, August 27, 2013 (UTC) ::::In 1994 Haiti was suffering a civil war one of the worst of the country I imagine that is the prime reason as no one was interested in that kind of things in a period like that,Not sure with Hanna,and like I say if the country delegate don`t ask for retirement member of the WMO might.Allanjeffs 21:41, August 27, 2013 (UTC) Well, even if Spain isn't part of the list of countries in the WMO, I bet that they could nominate a name if they so wished to. But the main areas are North America, Central America, the Caribbean, or, in the case of Fabian, Bermuda. If a big hurricane hits Spain/Portugal in the future I bet they could nominate it, but it's highly unlikely and they're in a pretty tight economic situation anyways. Asking for a hurricane name to be retired isn't likely something they would ask for. Ryan1000 22:25, August 27, 2013 (UTC) My bets: *All - 0% - *Presses button for failhorn*. I don't think anything could change my bet now. --Isaac829 22:17, October 3, 2013 (UTC) Pretty much this. ^ Ryan1000 22:12, September 5, 2013 (UTC) my turn: Ingrid: 27% everyone else: nope 'nuf said Leeboy100 (talk) 00:30, October 2, 2013 (UTC) Mid-season predictions This is the time of the season when CSU and NOAA issue their mid-season forecasts for the remainder of the season. To concide with their recent predictions, I will release my personal mid-season predictions in this section. If anyone else would like to have a say in the activity for the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season, please feel free to post it here. For the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, I predict: 16 named storms (Pablo), 7''' hurricanes, '''3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 155. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has had a very weak start. Although we have had four tropical storms, none of them have been strong or destructive. My previous prediction called for 21 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricane. However, this forecast assumed June and July would be hectic. In reality, these two months were pathetic. A good analouge for this season, in my opinion, would be 2003, 2007, or 2010. All three of these seasons had sluggish June-Augusts, but then imploded in September. 2013 is poised to do the same. Also, I think we could see a re-Isabel or re-Ivan this season. In addition, it should be noted both 2003 and 2007 had a power outage of strong storms. 2007 had plenty of storms (fifteen), but only one storm (Dean) lasted longer than a week. 2003 had three impressive major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel, and Kate), but was otherwise a dud season, minus Juan. I think 2013 will also be devoid of many strong system. This is why my forecast calls for a truckload of storms, but a disproportionate amount of hurricanes. AndrewTalk To Me 16:18, August 7, 2013 (UTC) Andrew 2013 has been extremely active.It already has 4 name storms.2010 have Danielle until August 21 so give it a chance.I believe we are going to get between 16 to 17 names storms 8 to 9 hurricanes and 4 to 5 majors.Allanjeffs 19:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC) : I think we'll get a very active season this year; my predictions in my blog could actually be lackluster, I wouldn't be surprised if we get an explosion of activity in late August and September and possibly even run the table this year. I'm predicting a total of 18-21 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 majors. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Don't lose hope for this year just yet. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC) ::I'll throw my hat in the ring and predict 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:00, August 23, 2013 (UTC) :::I'm thinking 11 named storms, 3 (or 4) hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. This is looking like a near-average to inactive season. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:29, August 29, 2013 (UTC) :::Steven, I think you are seriously underestimating the potential future activity for this season. The only reason we have not gone bonkers like 2005 or 2008 yet is because the SAL is keeping all these tropical waves in check. However, today, the SAL will depart the Atlantic for good, and from here on out, we could see a mega-explosion in activity. 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988, and 2001 had no hurricanes yet by this time in the season, yet all of them ended with at least five (1967 had six and 2001 had nine). 1961 had a record-dead August, but once September came, the Atlantic went nuts with five tropical storms, four of which (Betsy-Esther) ultimately became major hurricanes, and then had two major hurricanes form in October (Frances and Hattie). 1964 also went crazy after August (five major hurricanes formed after September 1!!!). The truth is, we actually have a long way to go, and now is not the time to write off the season. I now think 16 tropical storms, 8''' hurricanes, and '''4 major hurricanes will be our final tally. AndrewTalk To Me 02:52, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::Alright, I'm now thinking 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Looks like the Atlantic might explode in September after all. But still, this season will be nowhere near the activity of 2010, 2011, and 2012. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 03:13, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Yeah, this season isn't over yet. The Saharan Air Layer is starting to die down and the MJO will peak over the next two weeks. SST's are still above-normal for the Atlantic, and conditions are ripe for an explosion of activity to occur from here until say, late October. The two AOIs (one in the Central Atlantic, the other over Africa) have unfavorable conditions for now, but they could move into more favorable conditions later on. The Atlantic is far from dead; if you ask me it's just sleeping for now. But when it wakes up, it'll take off. Ryan1000 13:33, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Because of the heavy shear and lack of the season to get on with it, I am downgrading my prediction to 14 total storms, 4''' hurricanes, '''1 major hurricane, and an ACE of 60. Unless we pull a 2001 explosion of activity, we are doomed. AndrewTalk To Me 11:37, September 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::I'm surprised the Atlantic has been so lackluster in activity...the SAL and wind shear are more persistent than I (and many climate experts + NHC) thought they'd be. Ryan1000 15:03, September 6, 2013 (UTC) I now predict that we will end at 12-11-2-0. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:11, September 29, 2013 (UTC) Post-Season Changes This could've begun a little sooner, but Andrea's TCR was released on the 22nd, 8 days ago. Not much has changed, winds are still 65 mph (55 knots), and it caused around 25 million in insured losses and 1 direct death in NC, 3 indirect ones from traffic accidents. Anyone have opinions on what will happen post-season? I think there might have been a storm in the Atlantic in June earlier from what was 92L on June 6, if not a storm a brief depression. Ryan1000 19:40, August 30, 2013 (UTC) I could see a slight change in damages for Barry, and a slight intensity upgrade for Fernand and Dorian's second life. And I doubt Invest 92L will be classified. I do not know whether or not it had a closed circulation. AndrewTalk To Me 13:23, September 1, 2013 (UTC) Supposedly Ascat or oscat show a close circulation might be upgrade but it might not like 92L in 2010 which it wasn`t.Allanjeffs 00:56, September 2, 2013 (UTC)